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Sabtu, 27 Juli 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - No Free Will

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No Free Will

  

 

If you have even a modicum of education you quickly begin to understand that the notion of free will is a nothing but an illusion. We are subject to so many physical and mental triggers beyond our understanding that the idea of free will is frankly a cruel joke.

 

 

 

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Yet that fact should not stop us from constantly trying to exert some control over own existence.


This week Barry Ritholtz has a very column on his blog where he makes the argument that we can earn our free will through education and enlightenment. He writes, "In other words, you are not born with Free Will, it is something you must earn. Call it self-enlightenment through study and thought. I suspect there is about a year's worth of critical thinking lessons that could be pulled out of the three years of legal course work, and made useful for high school and college students. Society would be much better off for it. No, we do not need more lawyers, but we do need more people who can think rationally, critically and have analytical skills."


Barry's rumination on Free Will made me think of the market. There is perhaps no greater real life example of vagaries of life than the forex market. Only the most arrogant and the foolish amongst us can believe that they can exercise control over its direction. Those who have been trading for any period of time know that we can be blindsided at any moment by any number of events.


Yet it is exactly in the forex market that Barry's exaltation to self-enlightenment carries the most meaning. By constantly learning from the market we can adjust our approach and refine our methods of controlling risk. Indeed, the longer I trade the more I realize that the focus on profit is utterly futile. All we can try to do is to assiduously ask ourselves every single day -- what could I have done better to minimize my losses? If we can answer that question well -- the rest should take of itself.

   

  

 

  

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Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
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Sabtu, 20 Juli 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - The Trump Trade

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The Trump Trade

  

 

I never thought I'd put these words to paper -- but Donald Trump may be right. At least about how you should approach your work. In an interview in Entrepreneur magazine he said, "Part of being a winner is knowing when enough is enough. Sometimes you have to give up the fight and walk away, and move on to something that's more productive.

 

 

 

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"I've learned that there's a big difference between perseverance and stubbornness. Stubbornness involves me forcing things to work, while perseverance requires me to work consistently with what's already working. Some of the best decisions I've made involved saying 'no' to a potential partnership or pulling the plug on a product that wasn't working."

Trump's distinction between stubbornness and perseverance is actually very instructive for us traders. I think this difference manifests itself most clearly in the way we approach individual trades versus trading strategies.

How many times do we find ourselves in some stupid, unintended trade ( we were bored, we hit the wrong button, we jumped on the move too late etc.) only to stubbornly refuse to get out of it because it is bleeding pips? The natural human reaction is to wait, hoping for a retrace or better yet to double down as we try to pick the top/bottom and hope to average out to a better price. Since FX markets are generally range bound such stubbornness can sometimes pay off, but when markets go into parabolic trends the price of stubbornness is a blown account..

On the other hand, how many of us have perfectly respectable functioning trading systems that we abandon at the first sign of drawdown? Few of us have the perseverance to trade and refine the same idea for more than a month much less a year or a decade. Yet in the long run that's the only way to succeed. The irony of trading is that even if you daytrade like an monkey on Red Bull, to make real money you need to do it consistently -- day in and day out for many years. Just like any other job.

So, my thanks to the Donald for pointing out something very perceptive. We should be much less stubborn with individual trades and much more persevering with our trading strategies. Call it the Trump Way to Trading Success.  

   

  

 

  

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EUR/JPY to New Highs? Weekly Forex Technicals 7.21-28.13
EUR/JPY to New Highs? Weekly Forex Technicals 7.21-28.13
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Sincerely,
 

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Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Sabtu, 13 Juli 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - Don't Trade Like Tony Montana

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Don't Trade Like Tony Montana

  

 

As the dog days of summer are upon us -- its time for the rerun of my most famous and popular post of all time.

 

Fly on any Jetblue flight from New York to Fort Lauderdale and a curious thing will happen. If one of the Direct TV channels happens to be playing Scarface, every seat with a man in it will turn to that channel within 5 minutes until the whole plane is watching the movie. Guys love Tony Montana - the swaggering, psychotic gangster immortalized by Al Pacino.


 

  

 

     

 

 

 

 

Who amongst us can forget that final scene when Pacino faces a crowd of assassins screaming "Say hello to my leeeetle friend!" as he fires off his bazooka while he takes a shot after shot refusing to go down. Despite the comic book violence, and the psychopathology of the main character, most guys view Tony Motana with a no small dollop of romanticism. He represents our universal desire to take on the world on our own terms no matter the cost. But the cost matters, because in the end of course Tony Montana gets blown to smithereens and Oliver Stone ends the movie with the shot of "The World is Yours" trophy fallen on the floor.

 

 

I've been thinking about the Tony Montana character lately, realizing that I sometimes do a bizarre imitation of the "say-hello-to-my-leeetle-friend" scene when I fight the tape in FX. Did you stop me out as tried to short the top? No problem I can take it. Here is another order to sell. Another stop? Give it to me. More? Go ahead I'll take it all - I am stronger than the market, I can take it all. In any case you get the idea. After a while your trading account starts to look like Tony Motana's body and you begin to realize that maybe this is not such a good idea.

 

 

This week's moves in risk FX had many traders acting like mini Al Pacinos with euro shorts refusing to accept the fact that the currency was not going to implode anytime soon. The short covering rally was one of the most vicious spikes in recent memory, but if you've been in the markets for a while you knew that it wasn't that unusual. When the markets want to roll you can join them or get out of the way. If you chose to make a stand you will almost always be leveled to the ground.

 

 

Sun Tzu once said "He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious." This is perhaps some of the greatest advice that we can absorb as traders. Very often we trade not to win but satisfy our ego. Taking on the world, or the market is a romantic idea that we've all been taught, but in finance that is a very expensive way to conduct your business. As guys we may all yearn for our inner Tony Montana, but as traders we should wise enough to know better.

  

 


 

  

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Dollar Rally Done? Weekly Forex Technicals 7.14-20.13
Dollar Rally Done? Weekly Forex Technicals 7.14-20.13

 

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BKTMedia
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Each With a Game Plan and
Specific Stop and Exit Directions

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Sincerely,
 

BSignature

Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280