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Sabtu, 24 Agustus 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - Rerun- Trade Greedy or Trade Scared

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Rerun- Trade Greedy or Trade Scared

  

 

With summer doldrums in full force, as everyone lazes away the final few days of vacation, I thought it was good time to rerun this piece.

 

 

 

 

 

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The other day my friend Jamie Saettele posted on Twitter that he made 180 pips on the recent EURUSD rise, to which I replied , "Me too, but mine were in 5 pips increments  :) . " Jamie and I have been friends for a long time but agree on almost nothing. He is a solid Midwest conservative and I am the quintessential Northeast liberal. He trades almost exclusively off technicals favoring the arcana of Elliot Wave while ignoring all headlines. I almost always try to follow the story of the day and look at price action to support my decision.

 

Most importantly Jamie is a decidedly long ball hitter while I will chip and bunt and scratch my way to the plate. Jamie's trades are often multi-hundred point affairs that can last days and sometimes weeks. Mine rarely exceed 10 points and rarely take more than a few hours to resolve. Despite the differences we both manage to do ok. As Jamie tweeted back, "There are many ways to play the game."

 

In trading there are indeed many ways to play the game, but there is only true way to success. You either trade scared or you trade greedy. In trading neither one of those terms is used pejoratively but is simply an honest assessment of your personal style. I, for example, will never make hundreds of pips from a trade. I simply don't have the mindset to press my position. On the other hand I will never, ever lose more than 50 points on any trade. In short I am always trading scared. I am perfectly happy to increase my account by 5 pips at a time. That may seem arduous and tedious to some of you, but its perfectly fine for me.

 

Jamie on the other hand can milk the trade with enormous patience. He is perfectly happy trading "greedy" and although I haven't looked at his account in ages I am sure his equity swings are much larger than mine. He may make in one trade what I make in fifty.

 

The point however, is that you need to know what kind of a trader you will be. You can trade scared or you can trade greedy, but you can't do both. That's the number one problem of any novice trader. They try to be greedy when it comes to profits and scared when it comes to losses. Alas it just doesn't work that way. As Clint Eastwood once said, "A man's got to know his limitations." A trader must do the same.

 

 

   

  

 

  

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Sincerely,
 

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Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Jumat, 16 Agustus 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - What Stock Traders Can Teach Currency Traders

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What Stock Traders Can Teach Currency Traders

  

 

All of my investment money is run by @HedgeFundGirl -- not only because she the best stock picker I have ever seen, but because she knows how to put together an intelligent portfolio. Whenever I check the statements I am always surprised at how many losing positions there are on the books and yet how she is able to make money and beat my FX returns every single month and every year that we've been married.

 

 

 

 

 

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Portfolio management is one the best lessons that stock traders can teach currency traders. Most of us in the FX land are used to basically following the prop model -- one trade at a time win or lose -- then count your pips at the end of the month. But constructing a portfolio of trades to diversify your bets can open up a whole new way of looking at the market.


A recent New York Times article about diversification put it best -- if you are not perpetually pissed off, you are doing it wrong. The portfolio approach to trading basically assumes that you will always be losing on part of your positions. The underlying philosophy of the portfolio approach is based on humility.


The portfolio trader assumes at the outset that he does not know which bets will pay off and therefore makes a multitude of them, hoping that when the dust settles the winners will outrun the losers. Instead of serially picking his trades, the portfolio manager will spread the risk (and yes possibly dilute the return) in order to dampen drawdown.


For forex traders the portfolio approach is especially interesting when applied to algorithmic trading. If you are running the same strategy on multiple pairs then you are in fact practicing the portfolio method. However, quantitatively based currency traders often commit a very serious sin. They love to over-optimize their strategies creating very different entry and exit parameters for each currency pair.


But portfolio trading is not like prop trading. It's kind of like the difference between team and individual sports. ( I can still hear my football coach yelling, "There is no "I" in team boys!")
What may in retrospect be good for one currency pair may not be good for the portfolio as a whole.


The truth of the matter is that if you change the strategy parameters on one currency pair you are in fact over or under weighting that pair relative to all others and that creates a whole set of risk factors that you may not have anticipated. That's why when trading algorithmically, its best to give equal weight (i.e. same entry/exit rules) for all the currency pairs -- because after all you really don't know which ones will succeed and which will fail.

   

  

 

  

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Sincerely,
 

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Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Selasa, 13 Agustus 2013

RESEND LINK - Free Forex Guide on Top 10 Most Tradable Events

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Dear Forex brown
 

At BKForex.com, we love to trade the news but not all economic releases have the same impact on the market.  

 

Therefore it is essential for forex traders to know which events are possibly tradable and which events are unlikely to move the currency markets much.  

 

We've created this FREE guide specifically with you - the retail forex trader in mind.

 

Request to receive our Top 10 Most Tradable Events in the Forex Market now by clicking this link www.bkforex.com/top-10-forex-events-signup-form/ or the image below:

Top10image 
 

 


Sincerely,

 
KSignatureBSignature

Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg


Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Free Forex Guide on Top 10 Most Tradable Events

bklogo

   

Dear Forex brown
 

At BKForex.com, we love to trade the news but not all economic releases have the same impact on the market.  

 

Therefore it is essential for forex traders to know which events are possibly tradable and which events are unlikely to move the currency markets much.  

 

We've created this FREE guide specifically with you - the retail forex trader in mind.

 

Request to receive our Top 10 Most Tradable Events in the Forex Market now by clicking this link or the image below:

Top10image 
 

 


Sincerely,

 
KSignatureBSignature

Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg


Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Jumat, 09 Agustus 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - The Difference Between Trading and Investing

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The Difference Between Trading and Investing

  

 

Contrary to popular belief you do not need to understand high level statistics or even be able to read a balance sheet in order to be a successful investor. Investing isn't about numbers -- it's about narrative. How else would you explain a company like Amazon -- a hybrid of Walmart and Federal Express -- which is very good at selling dollar bills for 90 cents. Yet despite never making a dime Amazon's stock has made its founder Jeff Bezos so rich that he can drop 250M on a vanity publishing project like the Washington Post.

 

 

 

 

 

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Apple on the other hand makes more money than the Medici but has seen its stock tumble by 40%. What is the difference? Its certainly not the numbers. Erase both names off the letterhead and set the pair of books in front of an investor and I am sure you would be shocked at what each business will be valued at in a private transaction. The difference is narrative. The Amazon story is all about how they will own the world of commerce, while the Apple story is that after the passing of Steve Jobs they have nothing new to offer to the world.

So narrative, not numbers drives investments -- which is why some of the best analysts on Wall Street come from liberal arts backgrounds with degrees in such disciplines like Comparative Literature rather than accounting and finance. Any moron can build an Excel model whose investment worth is usually less than zero, but few can imagine the future. (see Tesla auto).

As human beings we love narrative. Storytelling is as old as the cave and deeply woven into our DNA. But as traders narrative can be our worst enemy. As traders we operate on a time frame where narrative can change in a heartbeat. Unlike investors who have the luxury of time on their hands to discover if their narrative thesis plays out as imagined, we -- with our levered accounts and day trading focus -- enjoy no such privilege.

Investing may be all about narrative, but trading is all about levels. Trading by its very definition is
the art of profiting from short term movements in price. Value means nothing. Narrative means nothing. Only price matters. And price is ultimately a function of levels. Are they broken? Are they supported? How much do we risk to find out the answer? Those are the only questions that should matter to us traders.

Don't get me wrong. As a trader you should know your narrative. You should be keenly aware of all the macro and micro themes running through the market, if for nothing else than to know when to stand down. But as traders we cannot make the following mistake. We cannot enter into a trade based upon a price level trigger and then remain in it because we are convinced of its narrative truth.

Yet we all fall into that trap.

In one of the greatest movie lines of all times in The Big Chill Jeff Goldblum challenges Kevin Kline to find anything in life more powerful than rationalization.

Michael: I don't know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations. They're more important than sex.

Sam: Ah, come on. Nothing's more important than sex.

Michael: Oh yeah? Ever gone a week without a rationalization?

Narrative is what we use to rationalize our losing positions and as traders we simply can't afford that luxury or we will go bankrupt.

The difference between traders and investors is that we trade levels, not narrative and we constantly have to remember that fact.

   

  

 

  

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Forex Technicals Video for the Upcoming Week
Comm Doll Bottom? Forex Weekly Technicals 08.12-17.13
Comm Doll Bottom? Forex Weekly Technicals 08.12-17.13

Become a Member of BKForex.com
BKTMedia
2-5 BK Trades Per Week
Each With a Game Plan and
Specific Stop and Exit Directions

Try BKForex.com now for only $59

Sincerely,
 

BSignature

Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280