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Senin, 28 Oktober 2013

Join us! FREE webinar on How to Trade News - FOMC and NFP

 

Dear Forex brown,

 

 

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BSignature KSignature

Kathy and Boris

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
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Jumat, 25 Oktober 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - Win, Lose or Draw - The Road to Successful Trading

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The other day Bob Pisani who has been covering markets for more than 20 years from the floor of the NYSE was ruminating about why investors fail and his conclusion was that most investors never stick to their original strategy. Bob was talking in particular about Bill O'Neill who founded Investors Business Daily and who is known as the father of momentum stock trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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O'Neill had two very simple rules. If the stock fell by more than 8% from your purchase price, you sold it regardless of any macro or micro conditions that may have caused the fall. If the stock had quarterly earnings growth of 25% or more -- it was candidate for a buy regardless of current valuation.

 

There were several other criteria that O'Neill used, but Pisani's point was that it really didn't matter if O'Neill was right or wrong in the short term. He was consistent with his trading and in the long run that mattered much more.

 

We all know that when it comes to investing the single best strategy is to buy a very low cost index fund with the same amount of dollars every month. Any investor who followed this strategy from 2000 onward through two brutal bear markets would be much better off than sitting in cash and would be way ahead of most hedge funds who jumped in and out of the market trying to outsmart it.The problem is that very few investors have the strength of mind to remain consistent in the face of risk and to follow the rules.

 

As traders we fall prey to the same human weakness. Very few of us can follow a strategy consistently through its inevitable drawdowns. Yet if we try there is tremendous value to be gained. First and foremost you becomes a realistic rather than an idealistic trader. If you trade a high frequency day trading strategy long enough you learn that there are days, week even months when you will constantly lose money. Although most us can appreciate this truth intellectually, few of us can accept it emotionally.

 

That's why trading a system consistently win lose or draw can be the best training experience for a trader. Once you have gone through the rollercoaster ride of rising and sinking account equity, you can begin to accept your losses with poise, and that is the first step towards becoming a winner in the market.

    

 

 

 

   

  

 

  

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Forex Technicals Video for the Upcoming Week

Can Dollar Go Lower? Weekly Forex Technicals 10.27-11.1.13
Can Dollar Go Lower? Weekly Forex Technicals 10.27-11.1.13

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Sincerely,
 

BSignature

Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
 

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Sabtu, 19 Oktober 2013

Boris's Weekly Email - How Do Stop Hunts Work in the Forex Market?

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How Do Stop Hunts Work in the Forex Market?

  

 

So today EUR/USD hit the 1.3700 mark in early New York trade and then immediately came off that level. During the London session when the euro was trading in the 1.3660s I put out a research note suggesting that this kind of scenario was highly probable. Yet I am hardly the Nostradamus of FX. I am simply aware of one of the most common occurrences in the currency market -- the daily hunt for stops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The forex market unlike the equity market is a dealer rather than a exchange based market. That means that the broker you deal with is not acting as an agent but as a counterparty. In short in the forex market the broker often takes the opposite side of your trade. Even in cases where the brokers act as pure agents they pass your order to the greater interbank market where the bigger dealers often assume the risk of holding the position against your order. 

 

So let's imagine a scenario like this. A customer decides to sell one billion euros at 1.3660. A dealer decides that the customers assessment of the market is wrong and takes the opposite side of that position by buying the billion euros from the customer. Instead syndicating the risk across the interbank market by selling off chunks of that order to other banks, the dealer decides to inventory the whole position.

 

The euro now rises as the day proceeds and is within 10 pips of the 1.3700 level. The customer, being a typical trader knows that the yearly high for the euro is near the 1.3700 level so he places his stop there. The dealer knows the customer's stop and he decides to spend 20-30M of capital to move the market towards the 1.3700 figure and stop the customer out. Note, it is only AFTER the customer is stopped out that the profit on trade can be booked. Otherwise it simply floats in the market and may eventually go against the dealer.

 

This is a very simplistic illustration of what happens in a stop hunt and it doesn't account for any possible news event that could suddenly move prices lower or for any other market participant that may have a very strong financial interest in keeping prices below the 1.3700 level. Forex being a highly speculative market nothing is ever 100% certain. Dealers, like all traders sometime make mistakes or get run over by unexpected news. Nevertheless all things being equal this little drama plays itself out almost every day in the currency market and even more so when the levels hold monthly or yearly significance.

 

It is also the reason why currency movements often stall at the round number figures. As human beings we almost unconsciously strive for order and many traders will leave their stops at the round number figures such as 1.3700. Seasoned market participants of course know this and exploit this very common weakness to run stops.

  

Again, I want to conclude by emphasizing that this is an academic example of how stop hunts happen in the currency market and the reality is never that simple or easy. But if you understand the underlying dynamic you will be better prepared to manage your trades and avoid the stop hunts.

  

 

 

 

   

  

 

  

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Forex Technicals Video for the Upcoming Week

Dollar Down Weekly Forex Technicals 10.21-10.28.13
Dollar Down Weekly Forex Technicals 10.21-10.28.13

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Specific Stop and Exit Directions

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Sincerely,
 

BSignature

Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien
BKForex.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |  
BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280