Boris's Weekly - What Poker Can Teach You About Trading

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Try our Trade Ideas for Just $1 Thoughts on Trading   What Poker Can Teach You About Trading  On this holiday weekend I thought I would re-run one of the best columns from last year.   This week Business Insider had a great profile of a professional poker player called Andrew Seidman. He has been playing the game since 2006 and has had massive success as well as some setback since then -- but perhaps what makes his story so compelling is that he is basically a regular self-taught guy rather than some Mensa math genius. I am taking the liberty of snipping parts of the interview (.. so apologies if some of the quotes appear as though you've entered the room mid-sentence) and affixing my own comments to his observations.   On capital and law of large numbers "However, it doesn't usually work that way. Usually people play with 20-40 times the buyin, well within a risk-of-ruin scenario in which a person could just get crushed by luck and bust out. Also, sample size matters. Can I go to Vegas and be assured of a winning weekend? No. Can I move to Vegas and be assured of a winning year? Probably."   Divide the "20-40 times buyin" line and you quickly come up with 5% of 2.5% bet size. This very close to what professional traders use to size their own trades. In fact I would argue that in FX you would want to be even more conservative and use 1%-2% risk limit per trade. Why? Well as Seideman explains by chopping up your bet size to small chunks you stand a better chance of avoiding risk of ruin -- a situation where the market, or the cards simply produce a very long string of negative outcomes.   Next. Size matters. In FX and in poker the more trades/bets you take the less likely you are to fall victim to a bad string of outcomes. Mind you if you strategy in trading or in poker is flawed from the outset, you will still lose. But if your probabilities are accurate the longer you trade/play the more likely the outcome will line up with expectation.   Good trading/playing means knowing the probabilities as well as the behavior patterns of your opponent. "First, you have to psychologically profile your opponent (everyone fits into one of three general profiles); second, you have to understand basic probabilities (e.g. if I have two pair and my opponent has a flush draw, I win 65% vs his 35% and these are relatively easy to memorize); third, you have to predict your opponents likely holdings."   What's absolutely key about understanding this passage is that Seidman not only focuses on the basic probabilities, but on the likely reaction of the opponent. That's why just knowing the news in FX is never enough. You have to understand if the market is ready to accept the news ( its in a momentum mode ) or reject the news (it in a mean reversion mode). Profiling the state of the market is just as important as acting on the immediate newsflow.   Adjustment is key "Good poker players go through all of that process and are really mentally engaged trying to determine those things. Weaker players really don't do any of that and make purely emotional decisions (conservative players never really bluff, crazy gamblers basically always bluff, etc.)".   This is SUCH an important point. Good traders/players always continue to learn and observe adjust their strategy within a properly designed framework. Bad traders simply repeat their emotional behavior over and over until they are bust.   Last but not least -- successful players compete with those who are weaker than them. This is a very common mistake that retail FX traders do all the time. By trying to trade right after the news retail traders are playing against much stronger opponents and institutional algorithms shred them to bits as a result.        Try our Trade Ideas of just $1         Forex Weekly Techs Where Are The Trades? 07.07-07.11.2014      Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Lesson #7 - How to Turn Economic Data into Currency Trades. + Learn how to position for big moves by trading news proactively + Learn how look for small, steady setups by trading news reactively + Learn a step-by-step news day trading system that aims for 4 out of 5 winning trades. Lesson #8 - Proper Money Management Rules To Protect Your Account + Learn the single biggest mistake all forex traders make and how you can try to avoid it + What are the hidden risks of trading Forex and what can you do to protect yourself + How to make risk control an automatic part of every trade you place PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER + How to develop a Professional Trading Plan with a Top Down Approach + How to fuse Fundamentals, Technicals and Sentiment to time the trade. + How to manage the trade for maximum profit potential. 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Boris's Weekly - Why Backtesting Always Lies

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Thoughts on Trading   Why Backtesting Always Lies    There is no investor in the world that will not ask you for your past performance results. The human need for assurance is greater than the need for fame of the most insecure Hollywood actor. Yet objectively speaking, there is perhaps no worse indicator of future performance than past results.   All past performance tells you is that you would have made money in market environment of yesterday but it will tell you nothing about how you will perform tomorrow. However, for an investor putting in fresh funds tomorrow is the only thing that matters.   I am sure stock market investors were thrilled to give Bill Miller money. He had, after all, beaten the S&P 15 years in a row! I am also sure that they were not so thrilled when this idiotic line of thinking cost them to lose 58% of their money in just one year as Mr. Miller's buy-the-dip philosophy suddenly stopped working.   To evaluate any investment idea (options excluded) you need to appreciate that there are only 2 states of price -- momentum and mean reversion. In plain English that means prices will either trend -- moving in one direction for a sustained period of time -- or they will range -- moving around a fixed price level for a sustained period of time. Every single investment strategy, from the most complicated HFT algo to the simplest buy and hold method are simply expressions of these 2 key ideas.   Once you understand this fact you pay much less attention to the past results and give much more weight to trading tactics. The key to a good system is not how much money it makes in a favorable market environment but how little it losses when the state of price behavior changes. This is also the key reason why every single backtest ever devised lies miserably when traded live. And it is the reason why I never care about back test results when I evaluate a system.     Try our Trade Ideas of just $1     As the great Yogi Berra used to say,"In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is." That is because investing in NOT Newtonian physics ( Newton by the way was a horrid investor). The past is not prologue in investing. The future does not repeat itself exactly like the past. That's why using the past to make decisions about the future is just about the worst way to analyze an investment idea.   Yet we are all subject to recency bias. We all want to be reassured that we are making a smart decision because it worked in the immediate past and that is why most of us are horrible at investing or at assessing investment ideas.   Forex Weekly Techs Where Are The Trades? 06.30-07.4.2014          Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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[Email Recall] Fundamentals Course Email Sent in Error

Having trouble viewing this email? Click here                                  233 W 77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 www.bkforex.com     Dear Forex brown   Oops! We accidentally sent out an email indicating that our Summer Promotion for our Fundamentals Masterclass expires in 24 hours.   That is incorrect. The offer is valid until July 7th   Please accept our apologies.   If you still want to take advantage of the $288 savings, visit http://course.bkforex.com/master-forex-fundamentals/       - Regards, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 Fax: 1-925-887-4373 Email contact@bkforex.com       Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. If you no longer wish to receive our emails, click the link below: Unsubscribe BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, New York 10024 United States

[Last Chance!] Only Hours Left to Save $288 on Forex Fundamentals Masterclass

Having trouble viewing this email? Click here                                  233 W 77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 www.bkforex.com     Dear Forex brown   This offer expires in about 24 hours..   Over 45,000 Traders follow us on Twitter because they know we are the leading experts on translating Fundamental News into Forex Trades.  Hundreds of students have taken this course and walked away with a sound understanding of fundamental analysis and actionable Trading Strategies.   We have put together a comprehensive 8-hour course with. All the videos are on demand so you can watch them anytime, over and over again.   Fundamentals. Strategies. Money Management.   Don't miss the opportunity to SAVE $288 or Over 50% on this class   Its ALL Ingredients YOU Need to Master Forex Fundamentals and Take Control of your Trading   8 Hours of On Demand Lessons PLUS 2 Months of Live Coaching PLUS 2 Months of Live Trading   Offer expires July 7th, 2014   Take action right away   The chance to SAVE $288 or + 50% on this class disappears in 24 hours     - Regards, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 Fax: 1-925-887-4373 Email contact@bkforex.com       Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. If you no longer wish to receive our emails, click the link below: Unsubscribe BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, New York 10024 United States