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Boris's Weekly - Why Backtesting Always Lies

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Thoughts on Trading   Why Backtesting Always Lies    There is no investor in the world that will not ask you for your past performance results. The human need for assurance is greater than the need for fame of the most insecure Hollywood actor. Yet objectively speaking, there is perhaps no worse indicator of future performance than past results.   All past performance tells you is that you would have made money in market environment of yesterday but it will tell you nothing about how you will perform tomorrow. However, for an investor putting in fresh funds tomorrow is the only thing that matters.   I am sure stock market investors were thrilled to give Bill Miller money. He had, after all, beaten the S&P 15 years in a row! I am also sure that they were not so thrilled when this idiotic line of thinking cost them to lose 58% of their money in just one year as Mr. Miller's buy-the-dip philosophy suddenly stopped working.   To evaluate any investment idea (options excluded) you need to appreciate that there are only 2 states of price -- momentum and mean reversion. In plain English that means prices will either trend -- moving in one direction for a sustained period of time -- or they will range -- moving around a fixed price level for a sustained period of time. Every single investment strategy, from the most complicated HFT algo to the simplest buy and hold method are simply expressions of these 2 key ideas.   Once you understand this fact you pay much less attention to the past results and give much more weight to trading tactics. The key to a good system is not how much money it makes in a favorable market environment but how little it losses when the state of price behavior changes. This is also the key reason why every single backtest ever devised lies miserably when traded live. And it is the reason why I never care about back test results when I evaluate a system.     Try our Trade Ideas of just $1     As the great Yogi Berra used to say,"In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is." That is because investing in NOT Newtonian physics ( Newton by the way was a horrid investor). The past is not prologue in investing. The future does not repeat itself exactly like the past. That's why using the past to make decisions about the future is just about the worst way to analyze an investment idea.   Yet we are all subject to recency bias. We all want to be reassured that we are making a smart decision because it worked in the immediate past and that is why most of us are horrible at investing or at assessing investment ideas.   Forex Weekly Techs Where Are The Trades? 06.30-07.4.2014          Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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[Email Recall] Fundamentals Course Email Sent in Error

Having trouble viewing this email? Click here                                  233 W 77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 www.bkforex.com     Dear Forex brown   Oops! We accidentally sent out an email indicating that our Summer Promotion for our Fundamentals Masterclass expires in 24 hours.   That is incorrect. The offer is valid until July 7th   Please accept our apologies.   If you still want to take advantage of the $288 savings, visit http://course.bkforex.com/master-forex-fundamentals/       - Regards, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 Fax: 1-925-887-4373 Email contact@bkforex.com       Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. If you no longer wish to receive our emails, click the link below: Unsubscribe BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, New York 10024 United States

[Last Chance!] Only Hours Left to Save $288 on Forex Fundamentals Masterclass

Having trouble viewing this email? Click here                                  233 W 77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 www.bkforex.com     Dear Forex brown   This offer expires in about 24 hours..   Over 45,000 Traders follow us on Twitter because they know we are the leading experts on translating Fundamental News into Forex Trades.  Hundreds of students have taken this course and walked away with a sound understanding of fundamental analysis and actionable Trading Strategies.   We have put together a comprehensive 8-hour course with. All the videos are on demand so you can watch them anytime, over and over again.   Fundamentals. Strategies. Money Management.   Don't miss the opportunity to SAVE $288 or Over 50% on this class   Its ALL Ingredients YOU Need to Master Forex Fundamentals and Take Control of your Trading   8 Hours of On Demand Lessons PLUS 2 Months of Live Coaching PLUS 2 Months of Live Trading   Offer expires July 7th, 2014   Take action right away   The chance to SAVE $288 or + 50% on this class disappears in 24 hours     - Regards, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, NY 10024 Fax: 1-925-887-4373 Email contact@bkforex.com       Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. If you no longer wish to receive our emails, click the link below: Unsubscribe BKForex 233 W77th St Suite 11G New York, New York 10024 United States

No Time to Trade? Follow Our Forex Trades Automatically With 1 Minute Setup

Dear Forex brown ,   Interested in trading currencies but don't have the time? We have a solution for you - Automatically Follow our Trades in YOUR Forex Trading Account!   With Boris covering the markets from the early European trading session into the North America open and Kathy taking over during the U.S. hours and covering the markets into Asia, we watch the markets like a hawk. Unlike some other analysts, we actually trade the markets with our own capital every single day. And now you can Take Full Advantage of our Market Experience by Copying Our Trades.     Monitor Positions in Real Time - With this service you can monitor positions in real time and have the freedom to adjust the lot sizes, stop the Trade Copier or exit specific trades at any point in time.   Get Trading Education - As a premium member of BKForex, you ALSO get access to BKForex Trading Education, Signals and Daily Webinars.   If you are interested, here's some information on opening an account:   What is Our Strategy?   We are currently offering the ability to follow our AJAX trades, a short term momentum strategy that trades the most important news of the day. This is the same strategy that we provide to our BKForex signal subscribers in our Daily Trading Plan. It is designed to generate consistent monthly returns on 1 to 1 leverage. Our strategy aims to generate 100 trades per month with an expected return of 100 pips per month.   Earn 50% Additional Return or More! - By partnering with Forest Park FX, an introducing broker of Oanda we can now enhance your returns by giving you a 0.5 pip rebate per round turn trade. You will get 0.5 pips back on every trade regardless of whether it is a winner or loser. This means that for our AJAX strategy which averages 100 trades per month with an expected return of 100 pips per month, earning 0.5 pip back on every trade increases our expected return by as much as 50%. See the table below.         **Please be advised that trading with any level of leverage may not be suitable for all investors and past performance is no guarantee of future results.     How Do I Get Started?   If you are interested in trade copier, please fill out this inquiry form http://trading.bkforex.com/follow-our-trades/ and details on opening an account will be emailed to you within 24 hours. If you have any questions, please feel free to email us at  contact@bkforex.com    Sincerely, Kathy and Boris

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For Best Results Trade Blindly

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Thoughts on Trading   For Best Results Trade Blindly    Whenever I am in a new city I like nothing more than to just step out of my hotel and walk aimlessly for hours to get the lay of the land. That exactly what I did last l week when I was in Madrid at my good friend's David Aranzabal's 2nd annual Forex Day expo. In fact I dragged Rob Booker with me and by the end of the trip we knew how to get around center city with.   I did the same thing this weekend in the Hamptons (dragged there by Hedge Fund girl who insisted on a family vacation). I turned off the GPS and simply drove around until I got a clear layout of East Hampton in my head.   Walking around blindly is one of the best ways to learn how to navigate. That's because if you don't want get completely lost you must pay attention. You will no doubt make mistakes, but if you are focusing on the task you will correct them quickly. Not only that, but you will also remember the proper path much, much, much better than if you simply relied on maps or GPS in your phone.   That's why when new traders ask me for advice on the best way to trade I tell them to simply open up their platform and click away. Trading like navigation, is the art of pattern recognition and therefore requires lots of practice in order to understand your environment -- be it physical or financial.   Of course this advice comes with some common sense precautions. I am happy to walk around the capitals of G-20 countries where my security is relatively assured, but I would not step out in the middle of Baghdad and say to myself, "Hey I wonder where that narrow alley leads to?"   The point is that just as with navigation and exploration, in trading you need to take calculated risks only. That means first and foremost trade small ( think of it as taking baby steps). Secondly always trade with stops (think of this as your personal 911 emergency number). Thirdly, always trust your gut. If for any reason you sense danger either on your walkabout or in your trade -- get the f** out! In life as in trading it is always better to look like a panicky idiot in retrospect than to suffer serious damage just to prove how brave you are.   Overall however, there is just no better way to learn to trade than by doing. Speculation is observation as someone once noted. You can read all the books that you want, follow as many gurus as possible, but ultimately, if you want to stop being a tourist and start being a traveler you need to learn how to explore for yourself.        Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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If you want to be Awesome at Forex Trading, You Need to Master Forex Fundamentals

Dear Forex brown,   If you want to be awesome at Forex Trading, you need to Master Forex Fundamentals   To help you achieve that goal, we are offering a special 50% savings on our Forex Fundamentals Masterclass    Fundamentals. Strategies. Money Management.   Get a Preview of our Trading Lessons   Its ALL Ingredients YOU Need to Take Control of your Trading   8 Hours of On Demand Lessons PLUS 2 Months of Live Coaching PLUS 2 Months of Live Trading   *Offer expires July 7th, 2014   Watch a Preview of our Trading Lessons Now   Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |   Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy. BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280